Markets displayed mostly choppy & divergent patterns on Tuesday as the lack of a fresh major catalyst meant traders continued to navigate political upheaval in France, Japan’s leadership transition, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines & Data:
- New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence for September 30, 2025: 18.0% (19.0% forecast; 22.0% previous)
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change for October 2025: -3.5% to 92.1 (3.2% forecast; -3.1% previous)
- Japan Household Spending for August 2025: 2.3% y/y (1.2% y/y forecast; 1.4% y/y previous); 0.6% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 1.7% m/m previous)
- Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads for September 2025: -3.3% m/m (-0.4% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
- Japan Leading Economic Index Prel for August 2025: 107.4 (106.4 forecast; 106.1 previous)
- Germany Factory Orders for August 2025: -0.8% m/m (1.5% m/m forecast; -2.9% m/m previous)
- U.K. Halifax House Price Index for September 2025: -0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous); 1.3% y/y (2.2% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y
- France Balance of Trade for August 2025: -5.5B (-4.9B forecast; -5.6B previous)
- Canada Balance of Trade for August 2025: -6.32B (-3.5B forecast; -4.94B previous)
- Canada Ivey PMI s.a for September 2025: 59.8 (51.0 forecast; 50.1 previous)
- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran thinks the Fed can continue to cut rates due to a likely limited tariff inflation impact & slowdown in population growth
- U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations for September 2025: 3.4% (3.1% forecast; 3.2% previous)
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for October 7, 2025: -1.6% (1.0% forecast; -0.8% previous)
- On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari said that drastic rate cuts would stoke inflation
- U.S. Consumer Credit Change for August 2025: 0.36B (12.0B forecast; 16.01B previous
Broad Market Price Action:
Tuesday’s trading session reflected a lack of a fresh catalyst during the Asia and London sessions, while the U.S. session saw punishment for risk takers and gains for gold and the Greenback. With no major catalysts to point to, it’s likely this was more repositioning and profit taking after the strong risk rally, than a strong opinion of where the market may move next.
Gold futures settled at $4,004.40, up 0.7%, after reaching an intraday high of $4,009 per troy ounce. The price of the precious metal has surged more than 50% in 2025, outpacing rallies during the pandemic and 2007-09 recession. The fresh milestone likely reflects mounting concerns about fiscal sustainability, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions.
The S&P 500 fell to around 6,715, retreating after a series of all-time highs spurred calls for a breather amid signs of buyer exhaustion. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.47% as tech giants dragged down the index amid a report that Oracle Corp.’s cloud margins are lower than many estimates.
Oil was net higher after a choppy session, likely influenced by OPEC+’s early decision to raise production by a modest amount, with West Texas Intermediate topping $61 a barrel following a 7.4% slump last week. The modest 137,000-barrel-a-day increment was well below some of the possible figures reported before the decision.
Bitcoin was the biggest loser on the session, likely driven by the technical move lower in risk assets and more likely some profit taking after breaking $126K this week as there were no major crypto related news to point to.
US 10-year yields dropped two basis points to 4.13% as bonds found support from solid demand at a $58 billion Treasury auction.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
The U.S. dollar demonstrated notable strength throughout Tuesday’s trading session, building momentum during the Asian and London sessions before experiencing a modest pullback in the U.S. afternoon. With no major catalysts to point to, it’s likely recent negative themes from counter currencies were the main contributor to Dollar strength overall.
The greenback saw particularly strong bullish momentum during the transition from Asia to London trading hours. The Japanese yen saw a dramatic drop, hitting its biggest one-day slide against the US dollar in five months, with the yen sinking 1.9% to trade at 150.35 per dollar. This move came after Sanae Takaichi won the election as Japan’s new Prime Minister this week, with market participants worried her administration could issue more debt for tax cuts.
The euro weakened 0.3% against the dollar as French bonds fell following Prime Minister Lecornu’s resignation, with 10-year yields jumping as much as 11 basis points. The political crisis raised concerns about France’s ability to address its budget deficit.
Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and mixed economic data, the greenback maintained its appeal as global uncertainties mounted, and closed the session as the best performing currency overall.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan Average Cash Earnings for August 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
- Japan Current Account for August 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT
- Australia RBA Annual Report 2025
- Australia Building Permits Final for August 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision for October 8, 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
- Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook for September 2025 at 5:00 am GMT
- Germany Industrial Production for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for October 3, 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for October 3, 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. Fed Musalem Speech at 1:20 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Barr Speech at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for October 3, 2025 at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.K. BoE Pill Speech at 3:00 pm GMT
- ECB President Lagarde Speech at 4:00 pm GMT
- FOMC Minutes at 6:00 pm GMT
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision will be closely watched, with markets expecting a 25 basis point cut as the central bank responds to weakening economic conditions.
The FOMC minutes will provide crucial insights into the Fed’s September deliberations, particularly regarding the balance between inflation concerns and growth risks.
Any developments on ending the U.S. government shutdown could trigger significant market moves, as the impasse continues to delay critical economic data releases and raises concerns about federal worker layoffs.
Fed speeches throughout the week will be scrutinized for clues about the October meeting, especially given the divergent views among policymakers about the appropriate pace of rate adjustments.
Stay frosty out there forex friends and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
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