Tech stocks powered to fresh records on Thursday as investors brushed aside the second day of the U.S. government shutdown, with markets more focused on geopolitical tensions after Russia warned of retaliation over potential U.S. missile deployments to Ukraine. The dollar whipsawed on conflicting shutdown headlines while gold maintained its relentless ascent toward $3,900.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines & Data:
- Australia Balance of Trade for August 2025: 1.83B (7.1B forecast; 7.31B previous)
- Australia Imports for August 2025: 3.2% m/m (-1.3% m/m previous)
- Australia Exports for August 2025: -7.8% m/m (3.3% m/m previous)
- Australia Household Spending for August 2025: 0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.5% m/m previous); 5.0% y/y (5.3% y/y forecast; 5.1% y/y previous)
- Japan Consumer Confidence for September 2025: 35.3 (35.5 forecast; 34.9 previous)
- Swiss Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for September 2025: -0.2% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous); 0.2% y/y (0.2% y/y forecast; 0.2% y/y previous)
- Euro area Unemployment Rate for August 2025: 6.3% (6.2% forecast; 6.2% previous)
- U.S. Challenger Job Cuts for September 2025: 54.06k (150.0k forecast; 85.98k previous)
- U.S. EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change for September 26, 2025: 53.0Bcf (75.0Bcf previous)
- U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for October 1, 2025: 6.59 (6.8 forecast; 6.61 previous)
- Russia warns of ‘appropriate’ response if US sends Tomahawks to Ukraine
- U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson addresses government shutdown in news conference, saying Republicans ‘have nothing to negotiate’
Broad Market Price Action:
Thursday’s session saw markets whipsawed by competing narratives of geopolitical risk and domestic political dysfunction, with early risk-off moves triggered by Russia’s warnings over potential Tomahawk missile deliveries to Ukraine giving way to a more constructive tone as the day progressed.
The S&P 500 eked out a 0.13% gain to close at 6,715.35, marking a fifth consecutive advance and fresh record high despite the challenging backdrop. Technology shares provided the backbone of support, with the Nasdaq 100 rising 0.39% to 22,844.05, also hitting a new all-time high. Nvidia shares reached fresh records as AI optimism continued following OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation announcement.
Gold retreated 0.24% to around $3,865 per ounce , taking a breather after its relentless march to record highs above $3,900 earlier in the session. The pullback likely reflected some profit-taking and a modest recovery in the dollar during early U.S. trading hours, though the precious metal remains well-supported by shutdown uncertainty and Fed easing expectations.
WTI crude oil extended its losing streak, falling 1.35% to near $60.60, the lowest close in four months. The continued slide likely reflected mounting concerns about a global supply glut as OPEC+ appears set to approve additional production increases at Sunday’s meeting, while Trump’s Gaza peace plan potentially reduces Middle East risk premiums.
Bitcoin surged 2.4% to trade above $120,000, demonstrating remarkable resilience and continuing to benefit from its emerging status as an alternative asset amid traditional market uncertainties and questions about fiscal sustainability.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.08%, with bonds catching a bid as the Russia-Ukraine tensions initially sparked safe-haven demand, though yields remained relatively contained given the competing forces of shutdown concerns and still-elevated inflation expectations.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
The dollar experienced intraday swings on Thursday, initially falling during the Asia and London sessions before surging on geopolitical tensions, then reversing course as shutdown negotiations appeared to hit an impasse.
The greenback began the Asian session relatively steady before catching a strong bid during the early U.S. session around 9:00 AM ET. This surge likely reflected safe-haven flows after Russia warned of an “appropriate” response if the U.S. proceeds with sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, escalating tensions between NATO and Moscow.
The pivotal reversal came around 11:30 AM ET when House Speaker Mike Johnson held a press conference declaring Republicans “have nothing to negotiate” regarding the shutdown. “If they keep the government closed it will get more and more painful,” Johnson told reporters. This hardline stance apparently spooked dollar bulls, as it suggested the shutdown could drag on longer than markets had anticipated.
President Donald Trump is weighing slashing “thousands” of federal jobs ahead of a meeting with his budget director, Russell Vought, as the White House looks to ratchet up pressure on Democrats to end a government shutdown that has entered its second day. The threat of permanent federal workforce reductions added another layer of uncertainty that likely weighed on the greenback during the afternoon session.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Australia S&P Global Services PMI Final for September 2025 at 11:00 pm GMT
- Japan Unemployment Rate for August 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
- Japan S&P Global Services PMI Final for September 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speech at 1:05 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB Services PMI Final for September 2025 at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Final for September 2025 at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro area PPI for August 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 9:40 am GMT
- U.S. Fed Williams Speech at 10:05 am GMT
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for September 2025
- U.S. Unemployment Rate for September 2025
- U.K. BoE Gov Bailey Speech at 1:20 pm GMT
- Canada S&P Global Services PMI for September 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Final for September 2025 at 1:45 pm GMT
- Euro area ECB Schnabel Speech at 1:50 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM Services PMI for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Jefferson Speech at 5:40 pm GMT
Friday’s trading will likely be dominated by government shutdown developments and any escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions following Thursday’s Tomahawk missile warnings.
With the official NFP report almost certainly delayed by the shutdown, the ISM Services PMI takes on outsized importance as potentially the only major U.S. economic release, with markets looking for signs that the services sector can maintain expansion even as manufacturing struggles. Any reading below 50 could trigger sharp risk-off moves given the absence of other data points.
Stay frosty out there forex friends and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
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