Markets were off to a running start on Monday, as gold once again hit fresh highs while U.S. equity indices also soared to record levels.
Positive trade developments on the U.S.-China front, as well as positioning for a Fed rate cut later in the week, appear to be keeping investors hungry for risk.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines:
- New Zealand Services NZ PSI for August 2025: 47.5 (49.5 forecast; 48.9 previous)
- Trump said he is willing to slap sanctions on Russia and that Europe should act too
- China House Price Index for August 2025: -2.5% y/y (-2.6% y/y forecast; -2.8% y/y previous)
- China Retail Sales for August 2025: 3.4% y/y (5.0% y/y forecast; 3.7% y/y previous)
- China Industrial Production for August 2025: 5.2% y/y (5.1% y/y forecast; 5.7% y/y previous)
- China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) for August 2025: 0.5% y/y (1.4% y/y forecast; 1.6% y/y previous)
- China Unemployment Rate for August 2025: 5.3% (5.2% forecast; 5.2% previous)
- Germany Wholesale Prices for August 2025: 0.7% y/y (0.9% y/y forecast; 0.5% y/y previous); -0.6% m/m (-0.4% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous)
- Swiss Producer & Import Prices for August 2025: -1.8% y/y (-1.2% y/y forecast; -0.9% y/y previous); -0.6% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m previous)
- Euro area Trade Balance for July 2025: 12.4B (11.5B forecast; 7.0B previous)
- ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday that “Monetary policy should keep a steady hand,” implying that small deviations from the 2% inflation target should be tolerated
- Trump posted on Truth Social that the meeting between the U.S. and China has gone well
- Canada Wholesale Sales for July 2025: 1.2% m/m (1.3% m/m forecast; 0.7% m/m previous)
- Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales for July 2025: 179.8k (160.0k forecast; 177.3k previous)
- Canada Manufacturing Sales Final for July 2025: 2.5% m/m (1.8% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous)
- U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for September 2025: -8.7 (10.0 forecast; 11.9 previous)
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that the U.S. has reached a framework of a trade deal with China
Broad Market Price Action:
Market participants were in the mood for risk throughout the day, as mostly downbeat Chinese data released in the Asian session further stoked expectations for additional stimulus measures.
WTI crude oil ripped higher early on, getting an additional boost from U.S. President Trump’s remarks on his willingness to impose additional sanctions on Russia and urging Europe to act as well, keeping oil traders wary of global supply troubles.
Gold, which was flip-flopping in slightly bearish territory during Asian and London market hours, found its footing during the U.S. session open, right around the time Trump posted about the U.S.-China meeting going well.
Later on, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that both nations reached a framework for a trade agreement, sending U.S. equity indices broadly higher. It also helped that Tesla and Alphabet stocks were on a tear, with the former closing 3.62% higher and the latter advancing 4.53%.
In contrast, Treasury yields continued to slump as traders likely positioned ahead of a Fed interest rate cut later this week. News that Fed official Cook will be participating in the September FOMC meeting also kept easing expectations supported.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
The dollar was on a steady downward trajectory throughout the day, mainly driven by pre-FOMC positioning, as well as risk-on updates that weighed on the safe-haven currency’s demand.
China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment data released in the Asian session painted a picture of an economy that could use more help from growth stimulus measures, leading AUD and NZD to have a similar bullish reaction to last week’s Chinese CPI release.
After a bit of profit-taking and rebound ahead of the London session, USD resumed its tumble, most notably against GBP as pound traders were also likely pricing in hawkish expectations for the upcoming BOE decision.
The dollar caught some bids after Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S.-China meeting went well, followed by Bessent’s confirmation that a framework for a trade deal has been reached. However, USD still carried on with its decline towards the end of the session as the rally in equities continued to stoke risk-on vibes.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index for July 2025 at 4:30 am GMT
- Australia RBA Hauser Speech at 5:45 am GMT
- U.K. Employment Change for July 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Average Earnings for July 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Unemployment Rate for July 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Claimant Count Change for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro area Industrial Production for July 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro area Labour Cost Index Final for June 30, 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro area Wage Growth for June 30, 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for September 16, 2025
- Canada Housing Starts for August 2025 at 12:15 pm GMT
- Canada Consumer Prices Index Growth Rate for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Retail Sales for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Import & Export Prices for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Manufacturing & Industrial Production for August 2025 at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for September 12, 2025 at 8:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence for September 30, 2025
- New Zealand Current Account for June 30, 2025 at 10:45 pm GMT
- Japan Balance of Trade for August 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT
It’s shaping up to be a busy one today, as the calendar has a handful of top-tier releases that could spur volatility.
First up, we’ve got the U.K. jobs report that could further underscore the BOE’s optimistic bias. After that, Germany has its ZEW economic sentiment index that could highlight the ECB’s less dovish tilt. Lastly, Canada has its CPI release that could influence market expectations ahead of the BOC interest rate decision.
As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
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