FX Weekly Recap: March 9 – 13, 2026

If you thought last week’s FX markets were wild, this week said “hold my crude oil.” The US-Iran war — now well into its second week — wasn’t just a geopolitical headline anymore. It became the operating system for virtually every currency move from Monday’s Asia open to Friday’s close, with Brent briefly topping $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut, and traders toggling between “war ends soon” optimism and “this could drag on forever” dread depending on whichever Trump tweet or Iranian official was speaking at the time. The broad strokes: the US dollar emerged as the week’s clear winner, collecting both safe-haven flows and the relative benefit of America’s net energy exporter status. The yen staged a dramatic late-week comeback after spending most of the week getting punished for Japan’s energy import dependency. The Aussie surprised to the upside — until it didn’t. And the kiwi, the pound, and the euro each had their own flavors of “not great, if we’re being honest.” Data mattered too — CPI, PCE, UK GDP, Canadian jobs — but mostly as supporting cast. This week belonged to the oil market, and the currencies that lived and died by it.