Market players zoomed in on leading U.S. jobs indicators ahead of Friday’s NFP release, as the reports printed mixed results and kept the dollar on edge.
Meanwhile, crude oil saw another nasty tumble when the EIA inventory report revealed a surprisingly larger build than expected.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines:
- API crude oil inventories up by 0.6M barrels vs. estimated draw of 3.4M barrels
- Chinese regulators reportedly considering measures to curb speculation on equity markets, including easing some short-selling restrictions and introducing options to temper trading
- China imposed fibre optic cable dumping duties on U.S. after a six-month investigation, citing exporters evaded existing duties by altering trading methods
- Australia Balance of Trade for July 2025: 7.31B (5.25B forecast; 5.37B previous)
- Australia Imports for July 2025: -1.3% m/m (-3.1% m/m previous)
- Australia Exports for July 2025: 3.3% m/m (6.0% m/m previous)
- Australia Household Spending for July 2025: 0.5% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.5% m/m previous); 5.1% y/y (5.0% y/y forecast; 4.8% y/y previous)
- Japanese trade negotiator Azakawa confirmed upcoming visit to U.S. after resolving some administrative concerns
- Swiss Inflation Rate for August 2025: -0.1% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous); 0.2% y/y (0.2% y/y forecast; 0.2% y/y previous)
- Swiss Unemployment Rate for August 2025: 2.8% (2.8% forecast; 2.7% previous)
- Euro area HCOB Construction PMI for August 2025: 46.7 (45.0 forecast; 44.7 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI for August 2025: 45.5 (45.0 forecast; 44.3 previous)
- Euro area Retail Sales for July 2025: -0.5% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous); 2.2% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 3.1% y/y previous)
- U.S. Challenger Job Cuts for August 2025: 85.98k (89.0k forecast; 62.08k previous)
- U.S. ADP National Employment Report for August 2025: 54.0k (65.0k forecast; 104.0k previous)
- Fed official Williams mentioned that tariffs impact could play out middle of next year, sees reduced upside inflation risks
- Canada Balance of Trade for July 2025: -4.94B (-6.1B forecast; -5.86B previous)
- Canada Imports for July 2025: 66.8B (68.0B forecast; 67.6B previous)
- Canada Exports for July 2025: 61.86B (61.9B forecast; 61.74B previous)
- U.S. Balance of Trade for July 2025: -78.3B (-79.3B forecast; -60.2B previous)
- U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Final for June 30, 2025: 3.3% q/q (2.4% q/q forecast; -1.8% q/q previous)
- U.S. Unit Labor Costs for June 30, 2025: 1.0% (1.6% forecast; 6.9% previous)
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for August 30, 2025: 237.0k (232.0k forecast; 229.0k previous)
- Canada S&P Global Services PMI for August 2025: 48.6 (45.1 forecast; 49.3 previous)
- U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Final for August 2025: 54.5 (55.4 forecast; 55.7 previous)
- U.S. EIA crude oil inventories up by 2.4 million barrels vs. estimated reduction of 2.0 million barrels, previous draw of 2.4 million barrels
- U.S. ISM Services PMI for August 2025: 52.0 (50.7 forecast; 50.1 previous)
Broad Market Price Action:
Profit-taking seemed to be the name of the game on Thursday, as investors likely squared away earlier positions ahead of the highly-anticipated NFP release towards the end of the week.
Gold eased off its record highs in Asia, partially dragged down by news that Chinese regulators are mulling curbs to speculative positioning in markets, before gradually clawing back most of its intraday losses for the remainder of the day but still closing 0.38% in the red.
Crude oil was on a steady downward trajectory during the Asian and London session, likely still pricing in rumors that the OPEC+ could go for another output boost while also reacting to surprise gains in inventories as reported by the API and EIA.
Equities appeared to be in a more positive mood, though, as futures edged slowly higher early in the day before U.S. stock indices accelerated their climb during the New York session. Mostly softer than expected jobs-related indicators probably fueled downbeat expectations for the August NFP release, which could then bring stronger odds of September Fed easing.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
After a bit of a rough start, the dollar found its footing a few hours into the Asian session then sustained a steady climb throughout the day while traders braced for Friday’s U.S. NFP report.
Some risk-off flows probably kicked in as well, as Chinese regulators are reportedly considering measures to curb speculative stock positioning while the country also slapped the U.S. with duties on fibre optic cable dumping.
Analysts pointed out that this could also be in retaliation for U.S. chip sector tariffs, keeping trade war fears in play. With that, AUD and NZD found themselves on the back foot for the most part of the day, raking in the largest losses to the dollar by session’s end at 0.41% and 0.48% respectively.
Leading U.S. jobs indicators such as the Challenger job cuts and ADP non-farm employment change reports pointed to softer hiring gains for August while the ISM services PMI turned out better than expected, although the jobs component stayed in contractionary territory for the third month in a row.
Still, USD closed higher across the board while keeping gains against EUR (+0.09%) and GBP (+0.06%) limited.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Germany Factory Orders at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Retail Sales at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Halifax House Price Index at 6:00 am GMT
- Swiss Consumer Confidence at 7:00 am GMT
- Euro area Employment Change Final at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro area GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est at 9:00 am GMT
- U.K. BBA Mortgage Rate at 9:00 am GMT
- Canada Employment Change at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada Ivey PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
All eyes and ears are on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August, as the results could strongly impact Fed policy expectations for this month. Along with that, Canada will also be printing its jobs data and likely affect CAD direction as well.
Prior to this, EUR and GBP volatility could pick up during the London session when Germany releases its factory orders data and the U.K. economy prints its latest retail sales report.
As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
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