{"id":3625,"date":"2025-11-23T10:31:21","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T10:31:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/2025\/11\/23\/fed-rate-hold-expectations-higher-after-oct-fomc-meeting-minutes\/"},"modified":"2025-11-23T10:31:21","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T10:31:21","slug":"fed-rate-hold-expectations-higher-after-oct-fomc-meeting-minutes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/2025\/11\/23\/fed-rate-hold-expectations-higher-after-oct-fomc-meeting-minutes\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Rate Hold Expectations Higher After Oct FOMC Meeting Minutes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>The Federal Reserve released minutes from its October 28-29 FOMC meeting, revealing significant divisions among policymakers about the appropriate path for interest rates and widespread concern that inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target despite recent rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p>While the committee ultimately delivered a 25 basis point cut to bring rates to 3.75-4.00%, the internal debate was far more contentious than the final vote suggests.<\/p>\n<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li> <strong>Many participants suggested it would likely be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year<\/strong>, signaling potential pause in December despite the committee\u2019s 25 basis point cut in October<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Several participants assessed a December cut would be appropriate if the economy evolved as expected<\/strong>, highlighting the data-dependent nature of future decisions<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Almost all participants agreed to end balance sheet runoff (QT) on December 1<\/strong> as reserves approach \u201cample\u201d levels<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains \u201csomewhat elevated,\u201d<\/strong> with upside risks still present<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Downside risks to employment have risen in recent months<\/strong> while job gains have slowed<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Tariffs are expected to put upward pressure on inflation in 2025 and 2026<\/strong> according to staff projections<\/li>\n<li> <strong>The committee showed notable discord<\/strong>: Stephen Miran favored a larger 50 bps cut; Jeffrey Schmid wanted no cut at all<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The statement that \u201cmany participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year\u201d represented a significant shift in tone from the September meeting, as it suggests a faction of the committee believes the Fed may have already done enough easing for 2025.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Link to official FOMC Meeting Minutes (October 2025)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Also, the transcript of the meeting noted that \u201cmany participants expected some additional pickup in core goods inflation over the next few quarters, driven in part by further pass-through of tariffs to firms\u2019 pricing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Committee members also seemed divided on \u201csubdued job growth and moderate GDP growth.\u201d Some participants attributed this to advances in AI and technology boosting productivity while others saw it as a warning sign of potential broader weakness ahead.<\/p>\n<h2>Market Reactions<\/h2>\n<p><strong>U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies: 5-min<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar, which had been cruising higher ahead of the release of the October FOMC meeting minutes, extended its climb when the report revealed that a handful of policymakers were already leaning towards keeping rates on hold.<\/p>\n<p>The CME FedWatch Tool now projects a 67.2% chance of the central bank sitting on its hands next month versus 49.9% prior to the FOMC minutes.<\/p>\n<p>However, gains against commodity currencies were limited, as profit-taking and a bit of risk appetite came in play towards the end of the session. The dollar erased most of its post-FOMC minutes gains versus AUD (-0.03%), NZD (+0.10%) and CAD (+0.19%). USD managed to sustain its bullish momentum against JPY (+0.28%) until early Asian market hours and also against GBP (+0.38%).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Federal Reserve released minutes from its October 28-29 FOMC meeting, revealing significant divisions among policymakers about the appropriate path for interest rates and widespread concern that inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target despite recent rate cuts. While the committee ultimately delivered a 25 basis point cut to bring rates to 3.75-4.00%, the internal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3626,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405.png",780,405,false],"thumbnail":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405-300x156.png",300,156,true],"medium_large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405-768x399.png",640,333,true],"large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405.png",640,332,false],"1536x1536":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405.png",780,405,false],"2048x2048":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-featured":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-medium":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405-590x405.png",590,405,true],"crawlomatic_preview_image":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3625-fed-rate-news-2025-11-20-780x405-260x135.png",260,135,true]},"author_info":{"display_name":"henry","author_link":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/author\/henry\/"},"category_info":"<a href=\"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/category\/latest-news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Latest News<\/a>","tag_info":"Latest News","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3625\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}