{"id":3037,"date":"2025-09-30T18:53:34","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T18:53:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/2025\/09\/30\/aud-pops-on-rba-hold-but-pulls-back-after-bullocks-cautious-tone\/"},"modified":"2025-09-30T18:53:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T18:53:34","slug":"aud-pops-on-rba-hold-but-pulls-back-after-bullocks-cautious-tone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/2025\/09\/30\/aud-pops-on-rba-hold-but-pulls-back-after-bullocks-cautious-tone\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD Pops on RBA Hold but Pulls Back After Bullock\u2019s Cautious Tone"},"content":{"rendered":"<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<p><strong>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%<\/strong> in September, in a widely anticipated decision that reflected the central bank\u2019s cautious approach amid mixed economic signals.<\/p>\n<p>The unanimous vote to hold came as recent data suggested inflation might be proving stickier than expected.<\/p>\n<p>The RBA struck a cautious tone, noting that \u201c<em>recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The board emphasized it would remain data-dependent, stating it was \u201c<em>appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <strong>RBA held at 3.60%<\/strong> following three cuts in 2025 (February, May, August)<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>decision was unanimous<\/strong> among board members<\/li>\n<li>August <strong>monthly CPI jumped to 3.0% y\/y<\/strong> from 2.8%, the highest since July 2024<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Q3 inflation<\/strong> \u201cmay be higher than expected\u201d<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Private consumption<\/strong> picking up as real incomes rise<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Housing market<\/strong> strengthening from the rate cut effects<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Credit growth<\/strong> accelerating to 7.2% annually<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Unemployment steady<\/strong> at 4.2% in August<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Link to the official RBA Monetary Policy Statement for September 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The central bank warned that \u201c<em>indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas<\/em>\u201d justified holding steady. Governor Bullock emphasized the need to see the full effects of this year\u2019s 75 basis points of easing before moving again.<\/p>\n<p>In her press conference, Bullock stressed that \u201c<em>we\u2019re in a very difficult position with the property market<\/em>\u201d but emphasized the <strong>RBA must focus on its inflation mandate.<\/strong> She warned that higher prices \u201caffect everyone\u201d and reiterated that lowering inflation doesn\u2019t mean deflation \u2013 \u201c<em>we\u2019re lowering the rate at which prices are increasing.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bullock refused to provide forward guidance, stating, \u201c<em>I\u2019m not going to predict what the interest rate is going to be in the next three to six months.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Markets had widely expected the hold. NAB now sees no cut until May 2026, while Westpac maintains its November forecast.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Link to RBA Press Conference for September 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Market Reaction:<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Australian Dollar vs. Major Currencies: 5-min<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Australian dollar, which had been leaning bullish since the Hong Kong and China market open, <strong>jumped broadly and sharply at the RBA\u2019s hold decision<\/strong> as traders scaled back easing expectations.<\/p>\n<p>The immediate gains likely reflected reduced odds of a near-term rate cut after the RBA highlighted upside inflation risks and improving domestic demand. With the central bank signaling it wants to see the full Q3 CPI report before moving again, markets pushed back expectations for the next cut from September to November or later.<\/p>\n<p>The currency then pulled back during Bullock\u2019s press conference, as the RBA chief reiterated the bank\u2019s \u201ccautious, gradual\u201d approach.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AUD\u2019s dip after Bullock\u2019s presser likely reflected disappointment<\/strong> that she downplayed inflation risks, saying \u201cinflation is not running away\u201d and calling the outlook \u201cquite positive\u201d rather than pushing back against rate cut expectations.<\/p>\n<p>Her refusal to provide forward guidance, while pointing to global uncertainties and the need for more data, <strong>was taken as leaving the door open for further easing if conditions soften<\/strong>, which dented the currency\u2019s yield appeal.<\/p>\n<p>End-of-quarter flows may have also played a part, especially after the Aussie\u2019s broad gains late last week.<\/p>\n<p>The currency remains in the green, with the biggest gains against USD, CAD, and CHF.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% in September, in a widely anticipated decision that reflected the central bank\u2019s cautious approach amid mixed economic signals. The unanimous vote to hold came as recent data suggested inflation might be proving stickier than expected. The RBA struck a cautious tone, noting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405.png",780,405,false],"thumbnail":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405-300x156.png",300,156,true],"medium_large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405-768x399.png",640,333,true],"large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405.png",640,332,false],"1536x1536":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405.png",780,405,false],"2048x2048":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-featured":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-medium":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405-590x405.png",590,405,true],"crawlomatic_preview_image":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/3037-aud-rba-news-2025-09-30-780x405-260x135.png",260,135,true]},"author_info":{"display_name":"henry","author_link":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/author\/henry\/"},"category_info":"<a href=\"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/category\/latest-news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Latest News<\/a>","tag_info":"Latest News","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3037\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}