{"id":2986,"date":"2025-09-26T12:55:32","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T12:55:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/2025\/09\/26\/daily-broad-market-recap-september-25-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-26T12:55:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T12:55:32","slug":"daily-broad-market-recap-september-25-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/2025\/09\/26\/daily-broad-market-recap-september-25-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily Broad Market Recap \u2013 September 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>Uncle Sam\u2019s mid-tier reports surprised to the upside and forced traders to reconsider aggressive Fed rate cut expectations.<\/p>\n<p>How did they affect the major assets\u2019 price action on Thursday?<\/p>\n<p>Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest\u00a0trading sessions!<\/p>\n<h2>Headlines:<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>FOMC member <strong>Mary Daly<\/strong> supports further rate cuts but has offered no timeline<\/li>\n<li> <strong>BOJ meeting minutes<\/strong> showed some members favor raising interest rates in the future even as they unanimously decided to keep policies steady in July<\/li>\n<li>Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for October 2025: -22.3 (-23.0 forecast; -23.6 previous)<\/li>\n<li>France Consumer Confidence for September 2025: 87.0 (86.0 forecast; 87.0 previous)<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision<\/strong> for September 25, 2025: 0.0% (0.0% forecast; 0.0% previous)<\/li>\n<li>U.K. CBI Distributive Trades for September 2025: -29.0 (-28.0 forecast; -32.0 previous)<\/li>\n<li>Canada Average Weekly Earnings for July 2025: 3.3% y\/y (3.6% y\/y forecast; 3.7% y\/y previous)<\/li>\n<li> <strong>USD Saw Broad Rallies on Upbeat GDP Revision, Strong Jobs Data<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. GDP Growth Rate Final for June 30, 2025: 3.8% q\/q (3.3% q\/q forecast; -0.5% q\/q previous)\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. PCE Prices Final for June 30, 2025: 2.1% q\/q (2.0% q\/q forecast; 3.7% q\/q previous)<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Core PCE Prices Final for June 30, 2025: 2.6% q\/q (2.5% q\/q forecast; 3.5% q\/q previous)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Durable Goods Orders for August 2025: 2.9% m\/m (-0.7% m\/m forecast; -2.8% m\/m previous)\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders for August 2025: 0.4% m\/m (0.0% m\/m forecast; 1.1% m\/m previous)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for September 20, 2025: 218.0k (240.0k forecast; 231.0k previous)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Goods Trade Balance Adv for August 2025: -85.5B (-93.0B forecast; -103.6B previous)<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Wholesale Inventories for August 2025: -0.2% m\/m (-0.1% m\/m forecast; 0.1% m\/m previous)<\/li>\n<li> <strong>U.S. Existing Home Sales<\/strong> for August 2025: 4.0M (4.0M forecast; 4.01M previous); -0.2% m\/m (-0.2% m\/m forecast; 2.0% m\/m previous)<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for September 2025: 4.0 (-5.0 forecast; 0.0 previous)<\/li>\n<li>FOMC member <strong>Miran<\/strong> favors front-loading interest rate cuts<\/li>\n<li>FOMC member <strong>Goolsbee<\/strong> pushed back against front-loading rate cuts, expressed concern about tariff-driven inflation<\/li>\n<li>FOMC member <strong>Schmid<\/strong> said current policies are only \u201cslightly restrictive,\u201d favors data-dependent approach to future decisions<\/li>\n<li>FOMC member <strong>Logan<\/strong> pushed to ditch fed funds rate for tri-party general collateral rate as main policy target<\/li>\n<li>FOMC member <strong>Bowman<\/strong> said inflation is close enough to the central bank\u2019s target, and job market is weakening enough to justify more interest rate cuts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Broad Market Price Action:<\/h2>\n<p>Markets struggled to find direction Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data muddied the waters for Fed policy expectations.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>10-year Treasury yield<\/strong> pushed higher to 4.17%, reflecting growing doubts about aggressive rate cuts after U.S. GDP surprised at 3.8% annualized and jobless claims fell to just 218,000. This yield backup weighed on equity markets, with the <strong>S&#038;P 500<\/strong> extending its pullback for a third day while <strong>European bourses<\/strong> similarly retreated, particularly Germany\u2019s DAX, which led declines as industrial machinery import probes added to the region\u2019s woes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Crude oil<\/strong> showed surprising resilience, recovering from early weakness near $64 to close at $65.20 as Trump\u2019s pressure campaign on Russian energy buyers offset concerns about Kurdistan exports resuming. <strong>Gold<\/strong> managed a modest gain despite dollar strength, seemingly caught between geopolitical support from escalating Ukraine tensions and headwinds from rising real yields.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> fared worse, breaking below $110,000 as crypto struggled with the combination of higher yields making traditional assets more attractive and risk appetite generally souring. The divergence across assets reflected a market wrestling with whether the U.S. economy\u2019s resilience was a blessing or a curse for asset prices stretched by recent rallies.<\/p>\n<h2>FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:<\/h2>\n<p>The dollar started Thursday on the defensive, extending Wednesday\u2019s late pullback as traders digested Fed\u2019s <strong>Daly\u2019s<\/strong> noncommittal timeline for further cuts and BOJ minutes showing members\u2019 inclination toward gradual rate normalization.<\/p>\n<p>The Greenback found its footing near the London open, though commodity currencies initially outperformed with support from firmer gold prices in Asian trading. The Swiss National Bank\u2019s decision to hold rates at zero briefly lifted the dollar, but the move quickly faded as the non-event failed to provide lasting directional catalyst.<\/p>\n<p>Dollar bears attempted another push lower midway through European hours, but the currency found increasingly solid support as Wall Street\u2019s opening bell approached. The real fireworks came with the US data dump. U.S. GDP was revised to 3.8%, durable goods surged 2.9%, and jobless claims dropped to 218,000, sending the dollar sharply higher across the board.<\/p>\n<p>Fed officials reinforced the move with divergent but largely cautious commentary: <strong>Miran<\/strong> advocated rapid easing to neutral, <strong>Goolsbee<\/strong> warned against front-loading cuts amid tariff-driven inflation concerns, <strong>Schmid<\/strong> called policy \u201cslightly restrictive and in the right place,\u201d while <strong>Logan<\/strong> focused on technical framework changes.<\/p>\n<p>The dollar leaned bullish through the New York close, when the dollar capped the day higher against its major counterparts.<\/p>\n<h2>Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Japan BOJ member Noguchi Speech at 5:30 am GMT<\/li>\n<li>Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations for August 2025<\/li>\n<li><strong>Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 9:30 am GMT<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>France Unemployment Benefit Claims for August 2025 at 10:00 am GMT<\/li>\n<li><strong>Canada GDP Prel for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Canada Wholesale Sales Prel for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT<\/li>\n<li> <strong>U.S. Core PCE Price Index for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Personal Income &#038; Spending\u00a0for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Fed Barkin Speech at 1:00 pm GMT<\/li>\n<li>U.S. UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. Michigan Inflation Expectations Final for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Canada Budget Balance for July 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>U.S. Fed Bowman Speech at 5:00 pm GMT<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Fed Musalem Speech at 5:30 pm GMT<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Fed Bostic Speech at 10:00 pm GMT<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Markets are in for a BUSY day with tons of potential sentiment-changers on tap. ECB President Lagarde\u2019s speech could the tone for euro direction, especially given the SNB\u2019s dovish hold yesterday and mounting European growth concerns.<\/p>\n<p>But traders are really on the lookout for the\u00a0U.S. Core PCE data during the U.S. session. Markets will likely remain sensitive to any inflation surprises following yesterday\u2019s stronger U.S. economic data that already trimmed rate cut expectations.<\/p>\n<p>With multiple Fed speakers scheduled throughout the U.S. session amid an already divided FOMC, we could see choppy price action as traders navigate what may be conflicting signals on the pace of future easing.<\/p>\n<p>As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don\u2019t forget to check out our\u00a0Forex Correlation Calculator\u00a0when taking any trades!<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uncle Sam\u2019s mid-tier reports surprised to the upside and forced traders to reconsider aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. How did they affect the major assets\u2019 price action on Thursday? Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest\u00a0trading sessions! Headlines: FOMC member Mary Daly supports further rate cuts but has<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405.png",780,405,false],"thumbnail":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405-300x156.png",300,156,true],"medium_large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405-768x399.png",640,333,true],"large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405.png",640,332,false],"1536x1536":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405.png",780,405,false],"2048x2048":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-featured":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-large":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405.png",780,405,false],"morenews-medium":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405-590x405.png",590,405,true],"crawlomatic_preview_image":["http:\/\/ft365.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2986-Market-Recap-2025-09-25png-780x405-260x135.png",260,135,true]},"author_info":{"display_name":"henry","author_link":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/author\/henry\/"},"category_info":"<a href=\"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/category\/latest-news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Latest News<\/a>","tag_info":"Latest News","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2986\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ft365.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}